Grantham faces a predicament. The population is growing and the
provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Grantham
person being 41.8 years (compared to the East Midlands average of 40.0 years
old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Grantham is
growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life
expectaancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high
net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house
prices.
My colleagues and myself work closely with Durham University and they
have kindly produced some statistics specifically for the South Kesteven
District Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics,
their population projections make some startling reading…
For the South Kesteven District Council area ... these are the
statistics and future forecasts
2016 population 140,140
2021 population 145,950
2026 population 151,482
2031 population 156,166
2036 population 160,293
The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore
means...
We need just over 10,000 additional new properties
to be built
in the South Kesteven District Council
area over the next 20 years.
Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis
in the short term in Grantham, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term
housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Grantham property
values over the last six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result
of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being
built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy
property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Grantham
but can’t buy or rent from the Council).
Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the
building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population
growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who
own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014,
whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancies mean
houses remain in the same hands for longer.
The swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more
competition for the young than for mature population. It might surprise some people that 98% of all
the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only
two percent being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding
supply to meet a expanding population by building on green belt – that most
Politian’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory’
strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the greatest. People
mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many
sites to build on, especially in Grantham that could accommodate 10,000
properties in the next 20 years.
In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will
continue to grow in Grantham (and the country as a whole). In the short term,
that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news
for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher).
In the long term though, local and national Government and the UK
population as a whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over
the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get
addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and
environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological
prosperous future for everyone.
