Well it’s been 11 weeks since the Referendum vote and
we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British
public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results.
I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all
but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC
saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.
If you want to read a copy of that original
Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog INSERT URL here and scroll back to late June to find
it. In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial
article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK,
but more importantly, the Grantham Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of
the South Kesteven District Council area went against the National mood and
voted as follows ..
South Kesteven
District Council Remain Votes 33,047 (40.1% of the vote)
South Kesteven
District Council Leave Votes 49,424 (59.9%
of the vote)
South
Kesteven District Council Turnout 78.2%
I have been reading there
is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote
Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's
techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the
2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many
surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to
support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Grantham
resident is 41.8 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which
might go someway to back up the way Grantham voted? What I do know is that
putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has,
and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market
needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the
UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
Interestingly, when we look at the
Homeownership rates in the South Kesteven District Council area, of the 40,311 properties that are owned in
the South Kesteven District Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned
with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy
picture.
Age 16 to 34 homeowners
3,145 or 7.8% (Nationally
9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 11,507 or 28.5% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 13,166 or 32.7% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners 12,493 or 31.0% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high
proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the South Kesteven District
Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and
younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford
to buy?
But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample
of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its
millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people
voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education,
the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the
various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over
the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’;
because many didn't!
