“The
growth of the private rented sector, and the arrival of an investor class of buy
to let landlords within it, is an issue that won’t be going away anytime soon,
no matter what you read in the Daily Mail”, I said, as I chatted over a
coffee with a landlord client of mine at Leo’s Cafe on Westgate in the town.
Whether you are a landlord of mine (or not as the case maybe), I am always
happy to look over any properties you are thinking of buying for buy to let
purposes and more so over a coffee!
Some commentators are saying buy to
let is about to die, with the new stamp duty changes and how mortgage tax
relief will be calculated. Some say 500,000 rental properties will flood the
market nationally in the next 12 months as landlords leave the rental market. Have
you heard the phrase ‘Bad news sells newspapers’? Let me explain why buy to let
in Grantham is only going in one direction – and not the direction the papers
say they are going.
According to Sheffield University,
buy to let landlords will continue fuelling the growth of the private rented
sector in the coming decades. By their estimates (and they are considered a
centre of excellence on the topic), the rate of homeownership nationally will
fall to 50% (today it is 62.9% in Grantham) by 2032, while the rate of private
sector renting will increase to 35% (interestingly, in Grantham it stands at 18.8%
today).
Therefore, the demand
for rental accommodation in Grantham will grow by 692 households in the next
five years ... and these are the reasons why, irrespective of the distractions
set out in the newspapers
Grantham property values over the
last six years have risen a lot more than average wages/salaries, meaning as
homeownership and mortgage availability is dependent on your ability to pay has
served to push home ownership further out of reach for many, at a time when the
stock of council houses has actually withered. (Nationally, the number of council houses in the last ten years has
dropped from 3.16m to 2.18m households - a drop of 31.1%).
Now it’s true the Tory’s efforts
to fix the deficiency of affordable housing have focused on those who want to
buy a home, ranging from Help to Buy and their much vaunted Help to Buy Isa,
and Starter Homes Scheme, an initiative offering a 20% discount for first time
buyers … but if you are unable to save for the deposit ... none of this means
anything to the ‘20 something’s’ of Grantham
... and they still need a roof over their heads!
Currently, 7,529
people live in private rented accommodation in Grantham
These are big numbers and a
sizeable chunk of the electorate. So whilst it appears Grantham “Generation
Rent” youngsters will continue to rent and to not to buy for the reasons set
out above, Grantham buy-to-let landlords will be lifted by the projections of
greater rental demand. Grantham and the area around it still offers the
prospect of strong economic growth forecasts and has a reputation as a lively
and desirable place to live. You see, with the new rules on tax, more and more landlords
will be looking to move away from the previous honeypot of central London, because
its higher prices meant lower rental yields. With the new tax rules and central
London’s cooling of house price inflation, more and more landlords will look
further afield, including Grantham (interestingly,
I have already been chatting to a few central London landlords after they read
the Grantham Property Blog).
So, by 2021,
the number of rental properties in Grantham will rise to 4,759
This prediction in growth of the Grantham
rental market is even on the back of the government clamping down on tax
reliefs for landlords. The point is this, gone are the days of making
guaranteed returns on BTL property. For the last 20 to 30 years, irrespective
of which property you bought, making decent money on buy to let property was
like shooting fish in a barrel – anyone could do it - but not now. You must take a more
considered approach to your existing and future portfolio, especially in Grantham.
The balance of capital growth and yield, especially in this low interest rate
world we live in, means Grantham landlords need to do more homework to ensure
the investment in property gives the desired returns. One place for Grantham
landlords and homeowners to visit for such information is the Grantham Property
Market Blog.
