Wednesday, 7 September 2016

92.2% of Grantham Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Grantham Property Market

Well it’s been 11 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.

If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog INSERT URL here and scroll back to late June to find it. In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Grantham Property Market.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the South Kesteven District Council area went against the National mood and voted as follows ..

South Kesteven District Council          Remain Votes 33,047             (40.1% of the vote)
South Kesteven District Council          Leave Votes    49,424             (59.9% of the vote)
South Kesteven District Council Turnout        78.2%

I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Grantham resident is 41.8 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Grantham voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).

Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the South Kesteven District Council area, of the 40,311 properties that are owned in the South Kesteven District Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.

Age 16 to 34 homeowners       3,145    or        7.8%  (Nationally 9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners     11,507    or      28.5%  (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners     13,166    or      32.7%  (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners          12,493    or      31.0%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the South Kesteven District Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?

But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!